Welcome to Car Talk. This is not talking about cars, this is talking inside of a car. Today’s topic is about analyzing long-term chain reactions. Long term cause and effect. Everything you do has a reaction, everything you do has many a reactions. And these are sometimes super obvious, sometimes they are much less obvious. And sometimes they don’t take effect for days, months, years, decades after the actions actually take place. And in some ways, trying to get ahead of the curve, excuse me, trying to get ahead of the curve, trying to figure out what’s gonna happen in the future, what’s a good business to get in, a good business to get out of, when things are gonna peak, when they’re gonna go away, a lot of that is analyzing, in your head, on paper, online, analyzing this long-term chain reactions of things.

Because that could make a big huge impact on the future, and a lot of times you don’t see them. I’ll give a couple interesting examples, and I’m gonna have to paraphrase here, I’m doin’ this on the fly, on the road. One of them is an old Asian-type proverb, I don’t know if it was Chinese or Japanese, or what, but Asian culture proverb talking about these long-term cause and effects, whereas there was this young man who breaks his leg when he was a kid and never healed right, so he couldn’t walk very well, and they thought “Oh, poor kid” and the old wise person says, “Oh, we’ll see.” And then years later, country breaks into a big war, so then that kid does not get sent off to war, where many of the other young men go and die in a war, so now he doesn’t go off to war and stays alive. Someone says, “Oh, lucky kid.” Then you see we’ll see, and then it’s a series of things like that where one thing leads to the next and then he doesn’t go to war, so then he can’t get some other advancement that he wants because he doesn’t have that credibility, oh poor guy. And then he doesn’t get that, so he works harder and gets to the next thing.

Oh, good guy. As a series of things which you might not see from being a little kid where one thing when you were a child can long-term react into the future, into intended or unintended consequences. Another interesting story, when, and this was off a Nova episode, surprisingly, on PBS a long time ago, but it caught my attention, and I love the long-term cause and effect story, and it talked about how there would be these wolf attacks, in Yellowstone Park in the USA, there were these wolf attacks and people were getting killed. So the obvious reaction, people are dying, we need to get rid of the wolves. So they allowed people to go in and hunt the wolves, and capture them and take them out. So the wolves left. Okay, people are alive, that’s great right? Thumbs up. Now what happens? The animals that were the prey of the wolves start to breed greater, because they are no longer in a population controlled environment. So now these, I think they were either elk, antelope, I’m not sure elk, antelope, some sort of animal of that nature started growing more, and more, and more. And because of that, so now that population increases without wolves around, so now they eat grass, and leaves of that nature.

So now there becomes a small tree deforestation issue, because now, instead of these leaves growing up enough, the leaves are getting trimmed down, grass areas are getting worn down, which allows another plant style to breed more, because it’s no longer fighting over the same turf. So now that grows, and now those trees grow, those are trees growing, so now after that it starts shading a certain area of water and lakes, because that’s going. And then when that happens then there starts to be an increase in badger and beaver populations, because now they have more places to actually rest in the shade. And it was long-term things, and you would think how could getting rid of wolves, which are killing humans, which is bad, obviously, how could doing that cause an increase in the badger population? Crazy, right? Because of long-term unforeseen cause and effects. And maybe if people really thought about that, they might have been able to see that long-term cause and effect and take more appropriate actions. They later introduced wolves back into Yellowstone and reestablished ecosystems. Fascinating story, I would look it up. Look up the wolves in Yellowstone, and the long-term cause and effect.

This was all a couple interesting stories to realize that every action you take in life, in business, in whatever you’re interested in, they all have effects on your future, and they all have multiple effects, and some of these effects might not be seen for years. For years, years, years, that’s how long these things take sometimes to actually come into full effect. There’s an interesting story with politicians and presidents because all the bad work the president does, the full effect is not seen until the next president is in office, so they’re judged more on history, versus popularity votes, not gonna get political, whole different topic, my thoughts on politics.

But these things take years and years and years, sometimes for effect. And if you can start to analyze these effects, it allows you to capitalize on these things, and make smarter decisions for yourself, for your family, for your business, because you realize what one thing means will lead to the next thing, lead to the next thing, lead to the next thing, and you think, “Well how am I gonna get ahead of this?” If I can be an early adopter of something that’s gonna be hot in years, I can be a super in-demand employee. I can start a business. I can be the business that was there when VR was at it’s infancy, versus trying to clamor for attention when every company does VR. Maybe VR’s , , years away until it’s mass-adopted, there’s one example. Information is being commoditized, it’s becoming easier. I have two little kids, two and four, these kids, when they get to be adults, information is not gonna be valuable to know at all. To memorize, to regurgitate information is gonna be a worthless, worthless, worthless skill for my kids. So how can I prepare them best for that? How can schools prepare them best for that? Also, a different story how schools are not on the ball at all with what the future actually has. Skills, all of these little things, driverless cars, when we no longer have to drive cars, think of this effects, this effects, this effects, this.

Coffee on the way to work, hotels, you don’t have to stop anymore, just sleep in the car overnight. All these little things that are affected, sometimes months, years, decades out, from an effect, a decision, an event, now. There are these long-term chain reactions that if you really spend some time and think about, and analyze you can capitalize on them. And you can avoid problems, you can make more money, you can get better jobs, you can put your family, yourself, your business in the right position to succeed long-term if you will really take some time and analyze chain reactions and long-term chain reactions of events going on in your life, in the world, technological advancements, all of these things. If you spend some time and analyze, think, project, look at what actually happens when these events happen, you can have some serious, positive impacts for you, for your family, and for your business. And that’s a seriously long-winded, ranting car talk on long term cause and effect and the chain reaction and long-term chain reactions of actions. Car Talk, Tyler Douthitt.